In a landmark decision that saw nearly 40 hours of decision-making gridlock over our energy future, nearly 200 nations reached an agreement last week at COP28 in Dubai to transition away from fossil fuels by mid-century. Despite tensions over wording and tight deadlines, the agreement has been hailed as a breakthrough for efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.
The UN agreement roadmaps transitioning away from fossil fuels in a “just, orderly, and equitable manner” to achieve net zero by 2050. It projects a peak of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 at the latest, with targets determined by sustainable development, poverty eradication needs, equity, and be in line with different national circumstances.
The pact also calls for nations to triple renewable energy capacity, double annual energy efficiency by 2030, which will likely also accelerate the deployment of electric vehicles (EVs). Each nation is expected to submit a detailed plan over the next two years on how it intends to curb greenhouse gas emissions through 2035.
“An agreement is only as good as its implementation,” COP28 president Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber told delegates before the summit closed. “We are what we do, not what we say. We must take the steps necessary to turn this agreement into tangible action.”
The cooperation of the US and China, the world’s top two emitters of greenhouse gases, will be essential in the journey to achieving these goals, and both will be required to update their long-term climate strategies. Global fossil-fuel emissions reached record highs this year, and nations are currently on track to cut pollution by less than 10% this decade.
Protests from oil-dependent nations and oil and gas interests, catalyzed stricter language and definitive dates for a fossil fuel phaseout. Language referring to new coal plants was also removed from the final version after intense debates and pushback from countries like China and India, which are building new coal plants to meet growing energy demand.
Additionally, challenges and criticisms arose for how the global population will struggle to adapt to the impacts of climate change, such as rising seas, wildfires, extreme storms, and drought.
“We are currently headed for just under 3oC. It still equates to mass human suffering, which is why COP28 needed to move the needle further,” said Simon Stiell, UN climate change executive secretary. “The global stocktake showed us clearly that progress is not fast enough, but undeniably it is gathering pace.”
Wealthy emitters like the US, Europe, and Japan were also condemned by some world leaders for not providing enough financial support to low-income countries to help them transition away from fossil fuels.
“The text calls for a transition away from fossil fuels in this critical decade, but the transition is not funded or fair,” said Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, an environmental group. “We’re still missing enough finance to help developing countries decarbonize and there needs to be greater expectation on rich fossil fuel producers to phase out first.”
The agreement acknowledges the importance of finance, but representatives agreed to further address the issue at the next round of climate talks. Parties concurred to meet in Azerbaijan for COP29, in November 2024 and Brazil for COP30 in November of 2025.
COP28 was seen as a demonstration that countries can still work together in the face of global challenges. The success of the agreement will now depend on its implementation, mobilization of finances, and hearty expansion efforts into renewable energy sources in order to properly facilitate the green energy transition.
