Register for 121 Mining Investment New York to attend the BHP Xplor Showcase on 17 September and meet the companies behind the next generation of exploration.
Finding the next generation of critical mineral deposits will require more than new technology. BHP’s Tim O’Connor argues that being in the right geology, making better decisions and having a wider pool of ideas will be just as important.
The mining industry needs new discoveries, but the scale of deposits it is looking for are becoming harder to find.
Global copper demand is projected to grow by around 70% between 2021 and 2050, driven by economic growth, electrification, infrastructure renewal, data centres and AI. At the same time, many of the next generation of orebodies are likely to be deeper, under cover and harder to detect.
It is a challenge that is forcing mining companies to rethink not only how they explore, but where the next great exploration idea might come from.
For BHP, that thinking is also behind BHP Xplor, its programme supporting early-stage explorers and technology developers with funding, technical mentoring and access to BHP’s networks. The premise is straightforward: in a harder exploration environment, majors cannot assume the best ideas will always originate inside their own organisations.
“The exploration challenge is getting harder,” says Tim O’Connor of BHP. “Many future orebodies will be deeper under cover and less obvious in datasets.”
Tim O’Connor, Group Exploration Officer, BHP
Better decisions, not more technology
AI, machine learning, advanced sensors and new subsurface imaging techniques are rapidly expanding the exploration toolkit.
But O’Connor is wary of treating technology as the solution in itself.
“The conversation about new technology at a major should start with the exploration problem, not with the product.”
For BHP, the important question is whether a new technology reduces uncertainty in a way that improves the next decision. Can it provide more confidence on where to drill, or support with decisions on what data to gather or, just as importantly, help decide when a project stops?
“Novelty is not the adoption standard. Decision impact is the adoption standard.”
The same discipline applies to AI. Mining is already rich in geological data, but valuable knowledge is often fragmented across historic reports, field notebooks and disconnected systems.
AI can help unlock that information, compare interpretations and identify patterns across enormous datasets. But without good geological questions and trusted data underneath it, its value is limited.
“There is no silver bullet,” O’Connor says. “Data and technology matter because they help technical teams ask better questions, test ideas faster and use capital with more discipline.What is a drill hole trying to prove?
Perhaps the more fundamental change is in how exploration teams think about uncertainty.
Instead of building exploration programmes around one preferred geological interpretation, teams can test several competing hypotheses and define what evidence would cause them to strengthen, reject or change each one.
That changes how we think about drilling.
Each hole is designed not only to test for mineralization, but to reduce uncertainty and improve the next decision. The questions becomes: what will this hole teach us? How would the results influence where we drill next, and what do we need to see that would tell us to stop?
That matters when deposits are deeper and signals less obvious. Every exploration dollar needs to generate information that improves the next decision.
Mining can learn from oil and gas, where geology, geophysics and data science have long been integrated into system-scale models designed to predict what lies beneath the surface and quantify uncertainty.
“We are still much better at describing what we’ve found than confidently predicting what we haven’t yet discovered,” says O’Connor.
Widening the search for ideas
The other shift is collaboration.
Governments and geological surveys hold valuable baseline data. Technology companies are developing new ways to image and interpret the subsurface. Universities bring research capability. Junior explorers can move quickly and pursue geological ideas that larger organisations might overlook.
“Many of the best early-stage ideas come from small teams that are prepared to test new concepts in underexplored terrains,” O’Connor says.
That is where Xplor fits into BHP’s exploration model.
Rather than replacing the junior ecosystem, the programme allows BHP to engage with it earlier. Explorers and technology developers bring new thinking, specialist expertise and speed; BHP brings funding, technical challenge, mentoring and access to a global network.
“The role of a major is not to replace the junior ecosystem, but to help the best ideas mature faster and with better technical challenge.”
The aim is not to back more ideas indiscriminately. It is to widen the aperture of ideas being considered, test them more effectively and identify sooner which deserve further capital.
That may ultimately be one of the most important changes in exploration.
The next major discovery could be enabled by AI, a new sensor or a better way of imaging beneath cover. But technology alone will not find the minerals the world needs.
It will take the right geology, better data, disciplined capital allocation and a willingness to look for good ideas beyond the traditional boundaries of a major mining company.
For programmes such as Xplor, that is the opportunity: find those ideas earlier, challenge them harder and give the strongest ones a better chance to become the discoveries the industry needs next.
Meet the BHP Xplor companies at 121 Mining Investment New York
That thinking will come to life at 121 Mining Investment New York on 17 September, where BHP Xplor will showcase a selection of early-stage exploration companies from the programme.
The dedicated BHP Xplor Showcase will give investors the opportunity to hear directly from the teams behind the projects, understand the geological ideas they are pursuing and see some of the approaches shaping the next generation of mineral exploration.
Register for 121 Mining Investment New York to attend the BHP Xplor Showcase and meet the companies behind the next generation of exploration.
