At 121 Cape Town, leaders from CrossBoundary Energy, First Quantum Minerals, Nedbank and Cygnum Capital examined what it will take to unlock the Copper Belt’s next phase of growth. With an estimated $500 billion required to meet future critical mineral demand, the discussion focused on energy security, logistics reform and evolving financing models. The consensus was clear. Without large-scale private capital, grid modernisation and coordinated infrastructure investment, the region risks falling short of its global supply potential.
A $500 Billion Opportunity
“The Copper Belt is central to the global energy transition,” said Gracia Munganga, Development Director at CrossBoundary Energy, as she opened the session.
CrossBoundary Energy focuses on decarbonising sectors such as mining, and Munganga framed the region’s potential in stark terms. Meeting projected demand for copper and other critical minerals will require approximately $500 billion in investment, much of it directed toward infrastructure and energy.
The resources are in place. The challenge lies in enabling them.
When Power Becomes the Bottleneck
For Zambia, that challenge became acute during what Jed of First Quantum Minerals described as the country’s worst drought in history.
With approximately 90 percent of Zambia’s power generation hydro-based, reduced water levels exposed a structural vulnerability in the system.
The timing was significant. First Quantum had recently commissioned its $1.3 billion S3 expansion project, increasing throughput and power demand.
“We increased our processing capacity, but at the same time the system was under pressure,” Jed explained.
To bridge deficits, the company sourced supply through a combination of the state utility, power traders and supplementary arrangements. The experience underscored a broader issue.
“There is growing demand for power, and we need new generation to support Zambia’s mining expansion,” he said.
Encouragingly, reforms are underway. Zambia is unbundling its state power utility and establishing a neutral transmission authority to encourage private participation. Collaboration between Zesco, First Quantum and the government has intensified.
But the message was clear. Without diversified baseload generation and grid modernisation, mining growth will remain constrained.
For investors, energy security has become a central pillar of project risk assessment.
Logistics: The Less Visible Constraint
Power is not the only pressure point.
“Logistics is just as important,” said Paul Miller of Nedbank, who brings 25 years of mining finance experience across Africa.
Infrastructure projects are progressing. The KMTR toll road – from Kasameno in the DRC to Mwenda in Zambia, which includes a 375-metre cable stayed bridge across the Luapula river and a one stop border post, signal tangible development. The rehabilitation of the Lobito railway line and multiple international consortium-led projects are improving regional connectivity.
Yet fragmentation remains.
“It is difficult to get a coherent regional view of logistics planning,” Miller noted, pointing to border posts, bypass routes and rail integration as areas requiring further coordination.
As copper volumes increase, transport capacity must expand in parallel. Otherwise, bottlenecks risk eroding competitiveness and delaying exports.
Financing the Infrastructure Gap
The conversation then shifted to how the sector can fund this transformation.
James emphasised how the attention on the power needs of the mining sector, and the growth opportunity it represents, are reflected in two big developments in the financing space. One, global investors are starting to look at African infrastructure off the back of the critical minerals agenda. Two, innovative financing tools with commercial lenders – such as early works financing, equity bridge loads and even bond financing – are able to play a role in accelerating project delivery times.
Miller highlighted the licensing of power traders and the growing strength of the Southern African Power Pool, which enables cross-border electricity trading and enhances system resilience. Interconnectors linking the East African and Southern African power pools are creating new flexibility.
“We are seeing real progress in deregulating the power space,” he said.
Merchant plants, privately financed generation assets selling into open markets, are becoming increasingly viable. For mining companies, adapting to this evolving landscape will be essential.
James Doree from Cygnum Capital then emphasised that only platforms that can demonstrate consistent growth and reliable project execution can attract private infrastructure capital at scale.
“Expanding the investor universe is critical,” he said.
Green bonds, early works facilities and other alternative instruments are supporting renewable projects in Zambia and DRC, while development finance institutions and private market insurance are helping manage political and jurisdictional risk.
The result is a broader and more sophisticated financing ecosystem, but one that still depends on regulatory certainty.
Managing Risk, Attracting Capital
Political and jurisdictional risk remain part of the investment calculus in both Zambia and the DRC.
However, the panel agreed that reform momentum is improving sentiment.
The unbundling of Zambia’s state power utility and increased openness to private generation signal a more investable framework. International support and development finance involvement are further stabilising the environment.
“Private capital will be essential,” Jed stressed, particularly for new baseload generation capable of underpinning mining expansion.
The appetite for well-structured projects exists. The question is whether infrastructure and reform can move at the pace required.
The Strategic Imperative
Global demand forecasts continue to reinforce copper’s strategic importance. Electrification, renewable energy systems and grid expansion are all copper intensive.
The Copper Belt’s geological potential is undisputed. The region holds the resources necessary to play a central role in meeting future supply needs.
But as the discussion at 121 Cape Town made clear, geology alone is not enough.
Energy reform, logistics coordination and innovative financing models will determine whether the region can convert resource wealth into sustained production growth.
The capital is available. The projects that attract it will be those backed by modern infrastructure, regulatory clarity and disciplined execution. For the Copper Belt, the opportunity is immense. Delivering on it will require alignment between government, operators and private capital at an unprecedented scale.
