Gold has traditionally been a safe haven during economic uncertainty. How do you see its role evolving in the current macroeconomic environment, especially with shifting interest rate expectations?
Gold has really come into its own recently. For many years, it was lagging—doing very little. I remember around 2015–2016, prices were quite depressed. Even major speculators like John Paulson, who had accumulated large gold positions, eventually gave up and sold.
But over the last decade, and especially in the past two years, gold has performed phenomenally well. Investors are increasingly concerned about global money supply, deficits, and widespread money printing—not just in the US, but globally. This has led to a shift away from traditional savings and into alternative assets.
We’ve seen strong money flows into US equities, real estate, private equity, and of course, Bitcoin/crypto. As for interest rates—when rates go down, gold typically goes up. Lower rates often signal economic slowdown or recession, prompting central banks to ease monetary policy and governments to ramp up fiscal spending. That environment tends to be bullish for gold, and we’ve seen some of that this year with the Fed signalling a potential pivot.
Silver often follows gold but also has industrial applications. What are the key drivers you’re watching for silver prices in the next 6–12 months?
Over a five-year period, silver correlates with gold about 80–85%. That correlation can break down over shorter or longer timeframes. Silver is also an industrial metal, unlike gold, so it often tracks macroeconomic developments and base metals like copper, zinc, and aluminium.
This year, silver lagged gold in the first half but has recently reconnected, hitting 14-year highs. It’s used in solar panels, grid tech, batteries, and jewellery. When gold gets expensive, consumers often turn to silver or platinum. The market has been in a supply deficit for the past five years and this is also providing underlying price support. Given our bullish outlook on gold and ongoing spending on silver-using technologies (especially by the Chinese), we expect silver to do well.
How do geopolitical tensions—such as those in Eastern Europe or the Middle East—factor into your outlook for precious metals?
Geopolitical shocks tend to be short-lived in terms of market impact. Gold might spike for a few days after a conflict begins, but unless there’s an accompanying economic shock, the rally usually fades.
If a conflict escalates—say, the Russia-Ukraine war expands into NATO territory, or sanctions disrupt global oil flows—then you get a more sustained move in gold especially if economic consequences follow. But isolated incidents, like a few missiles exchanged, don’t typically have lasting effects.
Central bank buying has been a major support for gold prices recently. Do you expect this trend to continue, and what might cause a reversal?
Central banks are growing as a gold-buying force, but they still trail jewellery and ETF demand. That said, many emerging market central banks are increasing gold reserves to reduce exposure to the US dollar and potential sanctions.
The US dollar’s role in global sanctions is a powerful tool—arguably more effective than military force. By parking reserves in gold (and increasingly, Bitcoin), central banks are trying to insulate themselves from sanctions risk. I expect this trend to continue.
What are your thoughts on digital assets like Bitcoin competing with gold as a store of value? Is this a real threat or overhyped?
Bitcoin has staying power—it’s not a fad. It’s becoming a legitimate alternative asset class. One advantage is that you can transact in Bitcoin, unlike gold. However, Bitcoin’s volatility makes it difficult to use as a stable currency, which is why stablecoins are emerging.
Since stablecoins can peg Bitcoin’s value, we could see a growing global, intermediary-free payment system. That’s where gold falls short—its price is too volatile for everyday transactions. If someone figures out how to stabilize gold prices, it could become more commercially viable.
Mining supply disruptions have historically influenced prices. Are there any current or emerging supply-side risks investors should be aware of?
Gold mine supply has been remarkably stable over the past 30 years. Most gold still comes from South Africa, and as long as the country functions, supply will continue uninterrupted. Other major producers include Canada, Russia, and Australia so the supply base is fairly well diversified.
Unlike copper, where a mine accident recently in Indonesia sparked a 7% advance in 24 hours gold doesn’t react as dramatically to supply disruptions as the supply base seems diversified and inventories are ample. So, I don’t see major supply-side risks for gold at the moment.
Looking ahead to 2026, what is your base case scenario for gold and silver prices, and what would be the key catalysts for upside or downside surprises?
It’s hard to predict, but I think we could see gold hit $4,000 this month. That’s a much higher target than most expected at the beginning of the year. If global political fragmentation continues—as we expect it will—this will increases risk and support gold further and we could trade in the high $4’s next year.
Tensions between the US and China, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and potential flare-ups in the Middle East all add to this risk. If these geopolitical shocks trigger economic shocks—like a stock market decline or recession—gold will really move.
As for silver, it’s at a 14-year high but hasn’t yet broken its all-time high of just under $50. I think it could break $50 soon, and possibly reach $60 next year. But if we enter a recession, silver could be hit harder than gold due to its industrial exposure.
