Gold has been consistently hitting higher prices this year. Are we bound to go even higher? What could impact that?
Gold is all about risk mitigation and uncertainty, both of which will remain front and centre for the near to medium term. There is a new cohort of investors and any pullback – and this market is way overbought and in need of one – is likely to find ready bidders. In my view the key will be the Supreme Court’s decision over the Lisa Cook case; this is due to go to argument in January.
You’ve mentioned that silver is entering a phase of transition, partly due to its role in the green energy revolution. How do you see silver’s fundamentals evolving over the next 12–18 months?
The key growth areas are vehicle electrification, AI, and solar cells. The latter are currently oversupplied and the surge in price this year is intensifying efforts, not just at thrifting, but at partial substitution. That said, underlying growth will remain robust.
Platinum and palladium markets have faced unique supply-demand dynamics. What’s your current outlook for these metals, and do you see any structural shifts in their industrial demand?
There is no major shift on the horizon. Both will benefit from the Trump Administration’s aversion to the green transition and also from PHEVs, in which the internal combustion element has heavier loadings that conventional engines. For the longer term, palladium still has a Damocletian sword hanging over it.
Recent trade tariffs and retaliatory measures have created more global volatility. How significant is the tariff narrative for gold and silver pricing compared to traditional drivers like interest rates and inflation?
In spot terms, these are only significant to the extent that it talks to the volatile nature of the current Administration; to that effect it is supportive. More worryingly, though, is the dislocation that it is causing in silver (and platinum) with risk managers holding onto metal in the US and with India becoming revitalised, London is under considerable strain.
Do you expect geopolitics to remain the dominant driver for gold in 2025, or will other macroeconomic factors regain prominence?
Yes and no in that order! Keep a close eye on the mid-term electioneering and any associated change in nuance from the White House.
You’ve highlighted that central bank buying remains consistent, even if volumes have slowed. How critical is this trend for sustaining gold prices in the current environment?
It is supportive in that it has been taking metal out of the market but is more important in that it sends signals to the rest of us that we should be wary of financial and political instability. Cessation of net buying (unlikely) would, on that latter basis, be a major bear signal.
Physical demand in key markets like India and China often plays a seasonal role. How are these patterns shaping up this year, and what signals are you watching for post-harvest and festival seasons?
Chinese bar and coin are relatively sturdy, but jewellery is flat on its back, with some switching into platinum. It is likely to remain flat until consumer confidence returns. India has been very quiet through mid-year but is picking up smartly now. The monsoon season was a good one, which bodes well for demand as the Indian farming population generally buys gold before just about anything else with their disposable income.
Finally, what are the big structural or thematic shifts you’re tracking in the precious metals space—whether it’s ESG considerations, green energy demand, or evolving investor behaviour?
ESG not so much. Green energy and its shifting sands, for sure (I don’t think any analyst ever believed that the political aspirational dates for net zero would be achieved). Trade flows and shifting international alliances, central bank independence, top-heavy equity markets, liquidity, shadow banking, and private credit. Which brings us full circle to Lisa Cook and the Supreme Court!
