As Net-Zero targets and low carbon strategies have infiltrated almost every country in the world, China continues to remain off track on almost all key climate commitments as it develops enough new mines to produce 1.28Bt of coal each year, as reported by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), including large mines with at least 1Mt of annual capacity as of April.
The report indicates that almost 80% (1,022Mtpa) of these mining proposals are greenfield developments, highlighting a substantial government-led push to initiate new operations.
“Expanding coal production capacity is currently a national policy priority and a political task. State-owned enterprises, which dominate the sector, are often mandated to fulfil this objective.” Said GEM project manager Dorothy Mei.
With significant coal mine expansions on the horizon, China is set to starkly increase its contribution to global coal mine methane emissions. If all the proposed projects come to fruition, an additional 14,956M cubic metres (10Mt) of methane could be released annually, potentially making up nearly 75% of the anticipated methane emissions from new mines worldwide.
The ramp up in coal production directly defies China’s Nationally Determined Commitment (NDC) under the Paris agreement, in which it formally made commitments to strictly limit coal consumption growth; reduce energy intensity; and reduce carbon intensity. The country’s five-year plans further set targets of increasing the share of non-fossil fuels to 20% of the energy mix and deriving more than 50% of the increase in energy use from renewable sources.
Additionally, the potential for increased methane emissions from these new mines, coupled with the challenge of abandoned coal mine methane as China accelerates the closure of small-scale and inefficient operations, amplifies the likelihood of China failing to reach its climate goals.
Despite the release of GEM’s less than positive report, China’s deployment of clean energy did accelerate considerably in 2023. With the GEM stating that most of the country’s climate targets for 2025 can still be met if this accelerated pace is maintained, energy demand growth returns to pre-Covid levels, and permits to new coal power plants are reviewed.
