For years, if you wanted a shorthand for BHP, iron ore was probably it.
That changed this week.
For the first time on a full-year basis, copper has overtaken iron ore as BHP’s biggest profit contributor, generating around US$18 billion in underlying earnings.
It is a significant milestone for BHP, but I think it also tells us something much bigger about where mining is heading.
Copper has been one of the industry’s favourite long-term investment stories for some time. Electrification, grids, renewable energy and electric vehicles have all supported the demand case.
Now AI and digitalisation are adding another dimension.
The investment going into data centres and the power infrastructure required to support them is creating another source of copper demand. BHP estimates that copper used in data centres globally could increase six-fold, from around half a million tonnes a year today to around three million tonnes by 2050.
BHP’s wider forecast puts the scale of the opportunity into perspective. It expects global copper demand to rise from around 34 million tonnes a year today to more than 50 million tonnes by 2050.
The demand story is therefore relatively easy to understand.
The harder question is where all that copper is going to come from.
BHP estimates that the world will require around 10 million tonnes of additional new copper supply over the next decade to keep pace with growing demand.
At the same time, new mines take years to discover, permit, finance and build. Deposits are becoming deeper and more complex, grades are under pressure and the cost and complexity of bringing new supply online continue to rise.
That is where the next chapter of the copper story becomes particularly interesting.
It may not simply be about existing production. It will also be about finding, financing and developing the next generation of projects capable of supplying that demand.
For investors, this is where some discipline is required.
A strong structural outlook for copper does not automatically make every copper company a good investment.
At our Mining Capital Markets Inner Table in London earlier this year, copper generated some of the liveliest debate. There was broad agreement on its long-term structural importance, driven by grids, electrification, infrastructure, defence and AI-related power demand. But there was much less agreement on when a significant supply deficit really begins to bite and how much optimism may already be reflected in valuations. (Download the report here).
That distinction matters.
Investors still need to ask the difficult questions. Can the project actually be built? Is the capital requirement realistic? Is management capable of delivering it? Does the jurisdiction work? And what price does copper need to be for the investment case to stack up?
Copper exposure may get an investor’s attention, but the quality and deliverability of the individual project still determine whether that interest turns into investment.
That is what makes BHP’s results such an important marker for the wider industry.
Copper is no longer simply a future growth story for the world’s largest miner; it is now its largest profit contributor. BHP has made clear that copper is key to its growth strategy, with plans to increase production through its portfolio of assets and growth options across Chile, Argentina, Australia and the United States.
That provides a powerful indication of how the industry’s centre of gravity is shifting.
It also raises a much bigger question for the rest of the sector.
If the majors are positioning themselves for a world that needs substantially more copper, where are the projects that will provide the next wave of supply?
And for investors, perhaps the more important question is:
Who is going to find them first?
BHP Xplor, BHP’s nine month global minerals exploration accelerator, and 121 Mining Investment are bringing together the 2026 Xplor cohort and a select group of active mining investors for an exclusive one-day networking event in New York on 17 September 2026. Investors, register here – BHP Xplor x 121 Mining Investment.
